ECONOMIC PERIL
I think it’s safe to assume there is more economic turmoil ahead. The last few weeks appear to be the start of a painful retrenchment that could last indefinitely. Frankly, I don’t think we have the wherewithal and toughness to stop inflation the way Mr. Volcker did in 1980. The Keynesians and leftists running our monetary policy today will likely succumb to their social sympathy. If higher interest rates are creating hardships, they will lower them again. If reducing their assets pinches business growth and cost jobs, they will start asset purchases again. That means inflation will persist and perhaps worsen. The downside from runaway inflation is hard times. The Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place with its monetary policy. To stop the inflation, they will have to kill the economy and they aren’t going to want to do that. Unfortunately, whatever they do from here will likely put us in economic and financial peril. More than ever, it makes sense to hedge against this possibility.
