In Jim Cook's Archive


One thing I’ve learned, in the eleven years that silver analyst Ted Butler has been a consultant to my company, is how much bad financial advice there is.  I’ve been able to compare the well researched viewpoints of Mr. Butler with the offhand opinions of other so-called silver experts.  When we first hooked up and he was making a case for silver at $4.25, another newsletter writer disagreed.  He claimed silver was “more common than cockroaches” and it should be sold.  His idea was to go short on silver and rake in profits after it dropped a dollar or two.

Time and again I read somebody’s opinion that’s based on a whim or a wish.  Last week one writer claimed silver is going to drop $15.00 in its next move.  Another advised that he thought silver would have a huge correction.  People are paying good money to these writers who dream this stuff up while looking in the mirror shaving.  It has no basis in any kind of research.   Basically you have a lot of self important characters dispensing advice that has a fifty-fifty chance of being right.   If it turns out to be true you’ll hear about it, otherwise you won’t.  It is no more than guess work.

Virtually everyone writing about silver these days is playing off of Ted Butler’s research.  Occasionally you read some Wall Street analyst writing about silver that has never heard of Mr. Butler.  This material is invariably so mundane you wonder what planet the author came from.  However, everyone else is privy to Butler’s insights.  They either plagiarize it outright or occasionally give him credit.  Most of this silver commentary embellishes his work with a pet theory of the author.  Sometimes it’s interesting, other times it’s off the wall.  The tone of some articles makes you wonder if the author actually thinks he thought up the content which clearly originated with Mr. Butler.

I notice the caution and care Mr. Butler takes to be accurate.  I see the thoroughness of his research.  He leaves no stone unturned.  When I contrast that with competing silver commentary which is so often only an opinion (everybody has one) it makes me wonder about the world in general.  How much thought and research backstops the numerous guests on financial TV?  Is it just a bunch of talkers offering their opinion?  I could give you a lot of impressive chatter about the bond market but I really don’t know anything about it.  A true expert is a rarity.  Look how often these Wall Street talking heads or government spokesmen have been wrong.  People are always predicting what they want to have happen.

The acid test of intelligence is if the things you believe in turn out to be true.  So far Mr. Butler has passed the test.  As for some of the others, well you know, everybody’s got one.

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