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BEST OF DOUG NOLAND
December 6, 2007
The unfolding Credit Crisis has necessitated the sequel "Committee to
Save the World Part Two." Especially after the Credit system took a turn
for the worst last week, I can understand Secretary Paulson’s urgency to
have institutions renegotiate mortgage terms with troubled borrowers.
But not only are we too far into the mortgage bust for such efforts to
pay much in the way of dividends, I am skeptical that our securitization
markets have the necessary infrastructure and legal structure to
equitably adjust mortgage terms on millions of loans. And it is becoming
increasingly clear that a large segment of troubled loans today involved
some degree of fraud at origination. Besides, there is simply not much
time to sort through all the various details. Examining the startling
almost $92,000 two-month drop in California median prices, it's apparent
that momentum generated by the The Great Housing Bust is not to be
impeded by a program to check subprime mortgage resets.
Such efforts, however, obviously have major impacts on the markets. I
can’t imagine more challenging market conditions or ones more
fascinating to try to analyze. It was quite a "squeeze" this week in
stocks, Credit instruments, currencies and commodities. The way I see
it, there is today a great and destabilizing dichotomy. On the one hand,
the Credit crisis and severe impairment of key sectors in the Credit
system ensure major liquidity constraints, faltering asset markets, and
an arduous economic adjustment period. On the other hand, years of
egregious Credit Inflation have created an incredibly bloated financial
apparatus (domestically and internationally) determined to disregard new
realities.
This "system", importantly, is especially indisposed to succumbing to
boom-turned-bust dynamics. Or, stated another way, our Wall Street
dominated financial apparatus is keen on "Inflate or Die" dynamics and
has no intention of relinquishing the tremendous power it has gathered
over the years. This is understandable, although it certainly creates a
very serious problem when it comes to the stock market refusing to
adjust to rapidly deteriorating underlying fundamentals. And if market
dynamics preclude an orderly stock market revaluation, expect it to come
at some point violently and with great hardship. This is one aspect of
the great costs associated with the Fed moving aggressively again to "reflate."
It won’t work, its further subverts the market process, and only worsens
an already perilous situation.
Doug Noland is a market strategist at Prudent Bear Funds. Their
website is www.prudentbear.com. |