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BEST OF DOUG NOLAND
August 30, 2005
Truth be told, Mr. Greenspan is a monetary policy radical. He
presided over the greatest expansion of speculative finance in history,
including a Trillion dollar hedge fund community, bloated Wall Street
firm balance sheets approaching $2 Trillion, a $3.3 Trillion repo
market, and a global derivatives market surpassing an unfathomable $220
Trillion. During the late-nineties, when leveraged speculation was
heavily infiltrating the financial system, he became the leading
proponent of the "New Economy." He became a powerful advocate of
derivatives and Wall Street finance, all the time avoiding any
discussion of the impact these new financial instruments and practices
were having on Credit growth, marketplace risk perceptions, speculation,
asset prices and the underlying structure of the economy.
Greenspan has stood idly as our Current Account Deficit has ballooned
to almost $800 billion annually, with foreign central banks accumulating
several Trillion dollars of claims on our economy. He watches as crude
approaches $70. And now he warns us against the scourge of
"protectionism," an inevitable response to the gross global imbalances
his activist inflationary policies have fostered. He ignored the most
reckless of mortgage lending Bubbles, and now warns us that prices,
market liquidity and wealth/income ratios may not be sustainable. Worse
yet, he is arguably guilty of committing the ultimate in central banker
derelictions by targeting household mortgage borrowings as the primary
mechanism for his post-technology Bubble "reflationary" policies (policy
error begetting ugly error). The "greatest central banker" incited
history’s greatest real estate borrowing and speculating Bubble, a
legacy our financial system and economy will have to live with for
decades.
There is today a joyous consensus view that Greenspan’s policy of not
preempting asset Bubbles as they inflate - but rather being
well-prepared to act aggressively when they burst - is pure policymaker
genius. Well, bull markets do fashion abundant "genius." Let there be no
doubt, however, that the inevitable housing bear/bust will expose the
grievous policy flaw of mitigating one Bubble by inciting an only larger
one. Greenspan’s use of the leveraged speculating community as a policy
tool was also a grave mistake. There will come a day of policy
reckoning. |