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June 12, 2007

As master of the obvious, I’ll predict we’re in store for A Long, Hot Summer of Volatility and Discontent. The bond market was content for some time to ignore unfolding fundamentals. The stock market has been gleefully disregarding reality. From Iraq to the entire Middle East to Russia – the disturbing geopolitical backdrop has curiously remained a non-issue. The enormous ongoing cost of national security and the global "war on terror" are brushed off as if they are inconsequential. But, then again, inflating financial markets create their own rationalizations, spin and reality. The latest round of bullish propaganda has really pushed the envelope, setting the stage for major disappointment and disillusionment. If history is any guide, expect a period of wild volatility leading to a financial accident.

Doug Noland is a market strategist at Prudent Bear Funds. Their website is www.prudentbear.com.

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