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BEST OF DOUG NOLAND
May 1, 2008
The U.S. Credit Bubble was punctured this past summer, as the
Mortgage Crisis escalated from the confines of subprime to the expansive
marketplace for Wall Street "private-label" ABS and MBS. Especially with
the bursting of the Florida and then California housing Bubbles,
literally Trillions of mortgages, sophisticated debt structures, Credit
insurance, various financial guarantees, leveraged speculative
positions, and bloated Wall Street balance sheets were in almost
immediate peril. Contagious deleveraging overwhelmed the system. In a
brief period of only several months the U.S. Credit system went from
unmatched expansion and speculative excess to the brink of implosion.
Last week, I made the case for thinking in terms of the end of the
first Stage of the Financial Crisis. The epicenter of this initial
upheaval was in highly leveraged positions in mortgage Credit exposure -
encompassing mortgage-related securities positions (i.e. ABS and MBS);
sophisticated Credit structures (i.e. CDOs, "SIVs," REITs, etc.);
various derivatives exposures (i.e. subprime ABX indices, Credit default
swaps, synthetic CDOs, etc.); and a broad assortment of financial
guarantees and liquidity agreements (monolines, mortgage insurance,
asset-backed CP, cash-equivalent funds, etc.). I have referred to this
as the breakdown in Wall Street-Backed finance.
This collapse had reached the cusp of bringing down the entire Credit
system. In stark contrast to traditional Credit crises, this one
engulfed the entire system before the general economy so much as
succumbed to a negative quarter of GDP contraction. To stem implosion
required nothing less than a Fed-orchestrated bailout of a major Wall
Street firm; the opening of the discount window to the securities firms;
the implementation of massive liquidity facilities at home and abroad;
the promotion of mortgage securities as collateral for borrowings from
the Fed; assurances of enormous market intervention (mortgage purchases
and guarantees) by the troubled GSEs; the imposition of significantly
negative real short-term rates; and open-ended federal government
stimulus and financial guarantees.
An argument could be made that, while dramatic, these measures were
not world changing. I would counter that such measures gave assurances
to the marketplace that the Federal Reserve (along with global central
bankers) and our government policymakers were willing take any and all
measures necessary to stabilize the Credit system and sustain the U.S.
Bubble economy. There were no longer any bounds on government
intervention.
Doug Noland is a market strategist at Prudent Bear Funds. Their
website is www.prudentbear.com. |