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Jim Cook

 

RUNAWAY SOCIAL SYMPATHY

Every once in a while I switch the TV channel from Fox to CNBC to see what the liberals are saying.  After listening awhile I get a deep sense of hopelessness and foreboding for our country.  The most important thing for the left is giving money to people.  They are happy to see the growth of food stamps, disability payments, housing subsidies, free healthcare and all the other welfare benefits.  They utterly fail to see the damage it is doing to the recipients.  Whole cities that once flourished have deteriorated into rotting eyesores populated with shambling hulks of chemically dependent drones.  These people are no longer employable.  They have become incompetent and helpless and the liberals can’t see that it’s their doing.

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The Best of Jim Cook Archive

 
Best of Michael Pento
July 21, 2010
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The Fed's balance sheet is at a record high $2.3 trillion. The unwinding of that balance sheet will send interest rates soaring on their $1.1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and further damage the real estate market, stifle earnings growth and depress GDP growth. The Fed must also find buyers for all that MBS debt. This will crowd out investments that would have normally been made into stocks.

Household debt and the gross national debt have never been at or above 90% of GDP at the same time. For the first time in U.S. history, that is the case today. Along with the massive deleveraging that still lies ahead for both the public and private sectors, the Treasury must auction off close to $9 trillion in debt each year to cover our ballooning deficits and to satisfy rollovers. This will further crowd out investments that could have been better placed into the stock market.
Once you view the real numbers on PE ratios and dividend yields it is hard to make an argument that stocks are cheap. And given the low levels of cash in mutual funds and the government's crowding out of private investments, investors will find it difficult to assume the market can produce a sustainable rally of any real significance.

The only disclaimer here is if the Fed embarks on another doubling of its balance sheet in an attempt to crush whatever life is left in the value of the U.S. dollar.In that case the market may rally in nominal terms. But you had better own precious metals and the companies that pull the stuff out of the ground if you want to earn a positive return after inflation.