Investment Rarities Incorporated
History |  Q & A  |  Endorsements  |  Portfolios  | Flatware | Gold Coins  |  Silver Coins  |  Contact |  Home

Products

Jim Cook

 

RUNAWAY SOCIAL SYMPATHY

Every once in a while I switch the TV channel from Fox to CNBC to see what the liberals are saying.  After listening awhile I get a deep sense of hopelessness and foreboding for our country.  The most important thing for the left is giving money to people.  They are happy to see the growth of food stamps, disability payments, housing subsidies, free healthcare and all the other welfare benefits.  They utterly fail to see the damage it is doing to the recipients.  Whole cities that once flourished have deteriorated into rotting eyesores populated with shambling hulks of chemically dependent drones.  These people are no longer employable.  They have become incompetent and helpless and the liberals can’t see that it’s their doing.

..Read More »

The Best of Jim Cook Archive

 
Best of John Browne
May 17, 2012
archive print

 

The German right - represented by Merkel's conventional CDP and the radical FDP - was initially interested first and foremost in preventing a shock to the market caused by the failure of one of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, or Spain). However, as these peripheral nations have rebelled against the austerity requirements accompanying the assistance Germany has offered, many of the more market-minded members of the right have begun to see the euro as a lost cause and a drag on Germany's own economy.

If this trend continues, the next federal election could see the current Merkel coalition lose out to the Traffic Light Coalition of the left-wing parties and the radical-right Free Democrats. The resulting policy agenda could include both increased public expenditure at home to placate the left wing and a withdrawal from the eurozone at the behest of the radical right. As with the current policy, this will be a mixed blessing for global investors.

A German withdrawal from the eurozone would utterly undermine the world's second reserve currency. The ECB absent of German influence would be pressured by the likes of France and the PIIGS to devalue the euro expeditiously. This would have dramatic implications for world trade and for the international monetary system. It may even forestall the further decline of the dollar as investors run away from the euro and into the relative stability of the US for a time.

However, for Germany, I believe it would be a decidedly winning move. Even with less fiscal prudence under the dominant left-wing parties, inflation hawks would likely retain their historic control of the Deutsche Bundesbank, which would resume issue of the trusty Deutsche Mark. While the SDP/Greens' public-sector expansion might precipitate a crisis far in the future, Germany currently has the domestic surpluses and industrial capacity to underwrite their foolishness.

If Germany decides that its economic system is fundamentally incompatible with a neo-Keynesian Europe, it may shift its trade focus to emerging BRICS countries, some OPEC members, and even resource-rich Western nations like Australia and Canada. I believe that such an economic bloc would favor a gold-based international monetary system, which may actually lead to the ultimate demise of the fiat money system advocated by Washington and Brussels.

In summary, beneath much media noise about the backlash against austerity in bankrupt nations, it is actually once again the German electorate that may hold the fate of Europe in its hands. Let us all hope they choose the course of least devastation and watch carefully to position our investments for any outcome.