What’s Happening

Are the markets behaving irrationally?  And if not, how do you explain 100 points up, then a 200 point turnaround closing 100 points down. Then followed the next day by 200 points up and then 250 points down?

If you insist on listening to the Government and its perennial bullish Wall Street analysts and economists reporting the Government’s false pipe dream numbers, then the only conclusion is that the market is irrational. But if that is the case, it is only irrational for very short periods of time and can easily be deciphered by using some COMMON SENSE.

Using Some Common Sense

Does it make sense to you that the inflation rate reported by the Government is really ZERO? If you want to know the real truth, just examine your own bills. I just bought a Dunkin Donuts small coffee and 1 donut; it cost me $2.50, gas for my car is back over $3 a gallon and they are telling us there is no inflation? If we use a more likely figure of 3.5% inflation, then the latest Government reported GDP growth rate is really ZERO instead of the 3.5% reported growth rate. 

Now, we know that all Government numbers (not just Obama’s) are massaged numbers to suit their agenda. But for arguments sake, let’s take their numbers at face value.

#1        They admit to unemployment being 10% (its more likely 17% to 21%).
#2        They tell us that savings is now in the neighborhood of 7%, up from zero a year ago.
#3        They report that the average number of hours worked (33) is the lowest since this statistic started being tracked back in 1964.
#4        They also report that consumer spending dropped by 0.5%.
#5        Last but far from least, they have reported that the median income has not increased in over 10 years.

Now, taking all these Government reported numbers into account, how can anyone in their right mind possibly believe that GDP actually grew by 3.5%?  Well, it only took the majority of investors overnight to take a good hard look at the numbers and realize that the GDP number was just a pipe dream (in the same vein as the 2 million jobs saved by the Stimulus Package).
Productivity

OH Yes! Let’s not forget productivity increases!  Simply put, productivity is measured by taking GDP and dividing it by the number of people employed. On a smaller scale: If a company lays-off half its employees (maintenance, R & D, quality assurance and everybody not involved with actual production.) but still produces the same amount as last year, then productivity increases by 100% and so do the company profits (because of the tremendous decrease in costs). But even if that were possible, what does that have to do with total output? And what do you think that would do to this company’s prospects, future production capability and future profitability? Would you be a Buyer or Seller of this stock?