It’s not hard to understand why someone who lives in China and whose job it is to report on China to the WEST, might report that the country’s economic prospects are so spectacular as to all but preclude the possibility of a deflationary depression anywhere in the world, predominately in the USA. Most everyone is not really aware of the tremendous problems, both internal and external, that China faces. And the ones that do are still adamant that they are Chinese problems for which there are Chinese solutions. DO THE NATURAL LAWS OF ECONOMICS NOT APPLY TO CHINA?

People seem to forget that China’s economy is only 1/4th the size of the USA and is an export dominated economy. China is no longer the world’s low cost producer and they are losing millions of jobs to Vietnam and other lower cost emerging nations. The blind belief is that whatever exports are lost to USA and Europe will more than be made up for by going to other emerging markets in the Middle East, Russia, South Africa, South America and of course, Asia.  All those countries put together cannot hold a candle to the buying might of just the USA let alone Europe, both of which are heading into a double dip recession at best. In the final analysis, right or wrong, China will do what it perceives to be best for China. But do not be delusional; the Chinese government is even more corrupt than that of the USA and Europe. Their real estate bubble (65% 0f earnings are required to pay home costs) is almost twice as large as was that of the USA’s, which at its peak was 35% of earnings when it’s bubble burst. 

China is NOT a capitalist country, it is Fascist and its government is no more capable of managing a complex economy than the rest of the world, especially since their top economists and politicians have all gone to the same socialist schools (Harvard, Princeton, Sorbonne and the London School of Economics). For the last 25 years or so, they were looking like geniuses because they came from a per capita income of $500/year and were just opening up their economy to foreign investment and allowing private enterprise to flourish along side of Government Run enterprises. With dubious accounting practices and virtually unlimited borrowing power, almost everything they did looked right. That is until the Bubble Bursts (where have we seen that before?) But as the economy becomes more and more complex, China will run into the exact same problems that all developed countries do, only more so, since they still have almost a billion people still living in abject poverty with absolutely no safety nets.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL TREMENDOUS PROFIT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, I FOR ONE WILL NOT BE COUNTING ON CHINA TO KEEP THE WORLD OUT OF RECESSION/DEPRESSION.