In Jim Cook's Archive


There is a tendency in all of us to believe that what is going to happen with our investments is what we want to have happen. If you wanted the tech bubble to continue in 2000 you had plenty of experts assuring you that it would. The author and CNBC guest James Glassmen said in October 1999, “What is dangerous is for Americans not to be in the market.” Larry Wachtel, a Prudential big shot suggested, “Most of these stocks are reasonably priced. There is no reason for them to correct violently.” Then the Nasdaq lost over 50%. Jim Cramer told us to buy Sun Microsystems at $60. It fell to $3.00. We can pull up hundreds of similar comments and advice. Suzie Orman; Larry Kudlow; Louis Rukeyser; Lou Dobbs; Marie Bartiroma; Abby Joseph Cohen; Alan Greenspan; they were all wet.

In 2008 Jim Cramer proclaimed, “Bye-Bye bear market, say hello to the bull.” Ben Bernanke assured us in January 2008, “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” He followed that terrible prediction with this whopper, “The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt.”

So if you’re believing everything you hear from Wall Street talking heads on CNBC or believing the press releases from the Fed and the administration in Washington, it might be time to see this as a countercyclical indicator. At the very least it could mean you should listen to us on where to put at least 10% of your net worth. Mr. Butler’s silver analysis is rooted in fact and not hope. Furthermore, you will never hear anybody beating the drum for silver on CNBC. That’s another excellent indicator. If the price of silver soars to the point where it’s praised in the media it may be time to sell.

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